The Wombat’s Blog

Scoring the Economy1

Two articles in the paper with opposing viewpoints. One by George Will (original here) and one by David Broder (original here), both from the Washington Post. They’re taking a view on whether the economy is doing well, or poorly.

The titles in our newspapers were “Economy is better than ever” and “Economy failing some tests”

From my perspective:

• Dow Jones is in record territory, but the DJIA is not the stock market. Take a look at the 5000 leading companies, or the mid-cap stocks, or perhaps the performance of NASDAQ since 2001. A different story.
• Lots of people are going into personal bankruptcy getting tricked by ARMs. After spending all this money on their house, they might lose it.
• Health Care costs are going up. I’ve had to spend time telling people why the average salary increase this year is 2% (because rising health care cost ate up half our budget increase). Our 2% average is less than the rate of inflation, meaning, in effect, everybody is getting a pay cut.
• I just don’t feel like buying big ticket items.

So is the economy doing great. Have to changed your spending habits because of the “amazing” tax cut we received a few years ago. Still, guess it could be worse.
George Will

Prosperity Amid the Gloom
By George F. Will
Thursday, October 19, 2006; Page A29

Recently Bill Clinton, at the British Labor Party’s annual conference, delivered what the Times of London described as a “relaxed, almost rambling” and “easy anecdotal” speech to an enthralled audience of leftists eager for evidence of American disappointments. Never a connoisseur of understatement, Clinton said America is “now outsourcing college-education jobs to India.”

But Clinton-as-Cassandra should not persuade college students to abandon their quest for diplomas: The unemployment rate among college graduates is 2 percent .

Clinton is always a leading indicator of “progressive” fashions in rhetoric. And every election year — meaning every other year — brings an epidemic of dubious economic analysis, as members of the party out of power discern lead linings on silver clouds.

“Worst economy since Herbert Hoover,” John Kerry said in 2004, while that year’s growth (3.9 percent) was adding to America’s gross domestic product the equivalent of the GDP of Taiwan (the 19th-largest economy). Nancy Pelosi vows that if Democrats capture Congress they will “jump-start our economy.” A “jump-start ” is administered to a stalled vehicle. But since the Bush tax cuts went into effect in 2003, the economy’s growth rate (3.5 percent) has been better than the average for the 1980s (3.1) and 1990s (3.3). Today’s unemployment rate (4.6 percent) is lower than the average for the 1990s (5.8) — lower, in fact, than the average for the past 40 years (6.0). Some stall.

Economic hypochondria, a derangement associated with affluence, is a byproduct of the welfare state: An entitlement mentality gives Americans a low pain threshold — witness their recurring hysteria about nominal rather than real gasoline prices — and a sense of being entitled to economic dynamism without the frictions and “creative destruction” that must accompany dynamism. Economic hypochondria is also bred by news media that consider the phrase “good news” an oxymoron, even as the U.S. economy, which has performed better than any other major industrial economy since 2001, drives the Dow to record highs.

The Jack No. 2 well, in deep water 170 miles southwest of New Orleans, recently discovered a field with perhaps 15 billion barrels of oil — a 50 percent increase in proven U.S. reserves. This news triggered a gusher of journalistic gloom: More oil means more woe — a reprieve for that enemy of humanity, the internal combustion engine, and more global warming, more air pollution, more highway fatalities, more suburban sprawl.

The recent 20 percent decline of the cost of a barrel of oil, from a nominal record of $78.40 (which, adjusting for inflation, was well below the 1980 peak of $92 in 2006 dollars), has produced an 81-cent decline in the average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline in 70 days. For consumers, that is akin to a tax cut of more than $81 billion.

President Bush’s tax cuts were supposed to cause a cataract of red ink. In fiscal 2006, however, federal revenue as a share of GDP was 18.4 percent, slightly above the post-1962 average of 18.2. And the federal budget deficit was $247.7 billion, just 1.9 percent of the $13.1 trillion GDP. That is below the average for the 1970s (2.1), 1980s (3.0) and 1990s (2.2).

It is said that employee compensation has been stagnant. But to tickle that bad news from the statistics you must treat “compensation” as a synonym for wages and then ignore the effect of taxation on individuals’ well-being.

Kevin Hassett and Aparna Mathur of the American Enterprise Institute, writing in National Review, say annual wage growth since 2000 has been 0.6 percent, but the annual increase in real hourly compensation, including benefits — and if you do not include them, why are they called benefits ? — has been 1.3 percent. And taxes — particularly those paid by middle-class families with children — have declined substantially.

Furthermore, as Hassett and Mathur write, consumers, by modifying their behavior, protect or enhance their well-being in ways not captured in economic statistics. For example, an American who, prompted by higher energy prices, traded in a Hummer for a Prius has served his or her standard of living. “If I ate 80 apples last year, and the price of apples increased this year to a million dollars, my welfare would not go way down; I would just switch to oranges,” the authors write.

Finally, today’s widening income disparities will be partly self-correcting. Granted, income statistics show the increasing disadvantages of persons with education deficits. But that is the market saying — shouting, really — “Stay in school!” Over time the voice of the market is rational, credible and therefore a potent instrument for changing behavior.

David Broder

Congress’s Dismal Grades
By David S. Broder
Thursday, October 19, 2006; Page A29

The editors of National Journal, a respected and independent Washington publication, had the smart idea of inviting 11 distinguished economists to fill out a score card on the economic performance of the Republican Congress. The grades are published in the latest issue of the weekly magazine.

The economists were asked to score Congress in seven categories, using letter grades. The composite score of four categories was a C, meaning average by historical standards. Two got a B-minus and one a D. Not exactly a huge vote of confidence.

Who were these 11 judges? National Journal describes them as “prominent ‘nonaligned’ economists — people who, by virtue of their work and long careers outside of politics, have earned reputations for delivering unvarnished analysis of economic policy.”

Their individual credentials are impressive. “Ethan Harris, Maury Harris, Allen Sinai, and David Wyss are well known on Wall Street,” the editors write. “Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight is one of the most respected economic forecasters. Lyle Gramley is a former governor on the Federal Reserve Board, and Michael Mussa is former research director at the International Monetary Fund. Edward Leamer is director of the Business Forecast Project at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, and James F. Smith is a professor at the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina. David Lereah is a longtime chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Victor Zarnowitz has long worked at the Conference Board, the business group that issues closely watched numbers on consumer confidence and leading economic indicators, and he serves on the committee of economists that decides when recessions begin and end.”

Short-term fiscal policy grades averaged out at B-minus. Gramley and Sinai gave it an A and A-minus, largely because the tax cuts had stimulated investment and productivity. Five others put it down around C, because so little revenue growth was channeled into reducing budget deficits.

The only other category that rated an overall B-minus was government regulation. The range of grades was small, with only one D and seven at or near B. The reason: The economists applaud restraint. As Lereah said, “Less regulation is usually better than more.”

That’s about all the good news. In long-term growth and competitiveness, the grade was C. No one gave it more than a B-minus, largely because the tax cuts were passed without reforms and because congressional efforts to improve education and training of the workforce seemed feeble.

International economic policy also was graded C. In the face of rising balance-of-payments deficits — a key measure of economic activity between countries — major trade initiatives have stalled. Although radical protectionist measures have been rejected, Congress has balked at bigger steps to open international markets, the economists said.

Congress was given a C for its economic leadership, and the same grade for its overall economic performance. Aside from cutting taxes, the lawmakers did little to help or harm the economy. They balked at tax reform and Social Security reform but made some improvements in pension reliability. Overall, this Congress was no better or worse than most of its predecessors, the graders said.

But there was one area where they said Congress failed and failed badly. That was long-term fiscal policy. There were five F’s, three D’s and no grade higher than a B-minus, for a composite grade of D. Speaking of the long-term liabilities of Medicare and Social Security, Gramley told National Journal, “Congress and the administration are not facing” reality. Behravesh called the response to those long-term deficits “quite irresponsible.”

Does all this add up to a case for or against the Republican Congress? The economists were not asked that question, but most of their comments convey support for the Bush tax cuts and opposition to the trade restrictions favored by many Democrats.

Still, a chart that is part of the National Journal story gives pause. It compares the economic performance of the first 5 1/2 years of this Bush administration with identical periods under Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Personal income after inflation and taxes rose 22.7 percent under Reagan, 20.4 percent under Clinton and only 14.1 percent under Bush.

That’s certainly not a C, and it may not even be a passing grade.

Posted: politics, personal finance

The Freedom of Capitalism0

(Original here).

So capitalism believes in the power of the market. OPEC doesn’t.

If the market doesn’t stabilize, they are going to continue to cut production.

Businesses like Wal-Mart operate on cutting the cost of business to deliver a cheaper product to the consumer. OPEC freaks if the price of oil drops too much. In fact, they want to defend a specific target price, and they will cut off the supply until the resulting price increases bring the oil levels back to expected levels.

Everybody complains about high oil prices, and here we have oil brokers talks about keeping “oil pries from further declines.”

There is an interesting story here, about this price fixing cartel, and the fact that is able to operate like this, without protest from anybody. This was a small article, just reported along the side of the days main events.

I still don’t quite understand who is in charge of this whole oil business: producers, distributors, consumers, politicians?

OPEC Cuts Oil Production by 1.2M Barrels
By TAREK AL-ISSAWI
Associated Press Writer

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Oil cartel OPEC decided to cut production by a greater-than-expected 1.2 million barrels a day on Friday, and some members indicated it was open to further cuts.

United Arab Emirates oil minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamili made the announcement at a news conference after OPEC’s oil ministers held an emergency meeting in the capital of Qatar.

“This was a surprise, and gave the market an impression they are serious,” said Ken Hasegawa, a broker at Himawari CX in Tokyo.

Crue oil prices have declined more than 25 percent since mid-July. After the announcement, a barrel of light sweet crude rose 47 cents to $58.97 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from its close Thursday at $58.50.

Support for the move by the de facto leader of the cartel, Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali Naimi, shows the group’s unity on the issue of price, another analyst after the announcement.

“If the market doesn’t stabilize, they are going to continue to cut production,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “Prices from $57 to $60 is an area they are willing to defend.”

UAE’s Al-Hamili did not specify the amount of production that each member country would cut, but said the reductions will affect all countries except Iraq. It is to take effect Nov. 1.

The cuts will come from actual production levels, he said, and are more than the 1 million barrels a day being called for earlier by cartel members.

OPEC is currently producing about 29.5 million barrels of oil per day.

The cuts are the first time OPEC has trimmed its output since December 2004, when oil traded slightly above $40 a barrel and the cartel lowered its official production quota by 1 million barrels a day.

However, many observers expect further production cuts in the near future.

Michael Fitzpatrick, a New York-based oil broker at Fimat USA, said, “I’m not sure that a million barrels is going to be enough” of a cut to keep oil prices from further declines.

Qatar’s Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamid Al-Attiyah said the cartel’s members are not excluding making further cuts.

Asked whether another cut could come in December, he said, “Everything is possible. We are working with the market and it is an open market.”

Al-Hamili echoed the possibility, saying “We will monitor the market and review the situation and take a decision accordingly.”

OPEC is scheduled to meet again in December in Nigeria and many analysts believe a further cut could be implemented then. “They better act quickly and decisively,” Fitzpatrick said.

The organization’s president, Edmund Daukoru of Nigeria, said talk of the possible need of a further 500,000-barrel cut was “in line with my own thinking,” Dow Jones Newswires reported.

OPEC price hawks such as Nigeria and Venezuela have strongly advocated a cartel-wide production cut since the start of the month.

But without public support from Saudi Arabia, the market took with a grain of salt the likelihood of any cuts.

In Tokyo, Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Friday that higher crude oil prices because of the production cuts wouldn’t be desirable.

“Crude oil has been fairly stable around $60 dollars a barrel. It wouldn’t be desirable if the effect of (the output cut) was negative from the standpoint of current prices,” he told a regular press conference.

Posted: politics, personal finance

Don’t Dismiss the Science0

(Original here)

Just the facts ma’am. Interesting to see how quickly this story died. So there’s a study that claims that somewhere between 400,000 and 900,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the conflict. The government response was “no, that’s way too high. That’s incredible. The number is closer to 50,000.”

Is 50,000 much better than 900,000, even if that were true? And not quite surprising how this has to be outright dismissed, without a closer look at the facts.

Counting The Iraqi Dead
By Eugene Robinson
Friday, October 13, 2006; Page A29

“Not credible” was President Bush’s quick verdict on the new study, published this week in the British medical journal the Lancet, calculating that more than 650,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the U.S. invasion and its ensuing chaos. It is understandable that the president would be quick to dismiss such an explosive claim, but the rest of us should take the time to look a bit more closely.

The number of estimated deaths claimed by the study is inconceivably huge and wildly out of scale with any previous figures we’ve heard. But it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that the human suffering in Iraq has been far beyond our imagining.

The peer-reviewed study’s named authors include three researchers from the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University — one of them is Gilbert Burnham, co-director of the school’s Center for Refugee and Disaster Response — and a professor from Baghdad’s al-Mustansiriya University. Funding for the project was provided by MIT. These are not shabby credentials.

But academic degrees and prestigious affiliations alone do not establish truth. Bush said the problem is that the study’s methodology has been discredited. But the team relied on a “cluster sample survey” technique that is frequently used for public health research, especially in the developing world.

No one should find the basic concept unfamiliar, since it underlies such mainstays of modern life as public opinion polls and market research. The survey team picked what was deemed a representative sample — in this case, 1,849 households scattered throughout Iraq — and used that sample to draw conclusions about the population as a whole. That’s the same method pollsters employ to predict who will win an election.

Ideally, the selection of respondents should be as random as possible. The process of choosing the 50 widely scattered neighborhoods in which the Johns Hopkins team did its work was not quite ideal, but the Lancet peer reviewers who cleared the study for publication could find nothing that would significantly skew the results. Interviewers went house to house, recording detailed information about deaths before the 2003 invasion and deaths since.

The researchers tallied 82 pre-invasion and 547 post-invasion deaths in those households. The death rate per year nearly tripled after the invasion, they found, and a full 300 of the post-invasion deaths, or more than half, were the result of violence. (By contrast, only 2 percent of pre-invasion deaths were violent.) Of those killed by violent means, more than half died from gunshot wounds; the rest died mostly in bombings and airstrikes. Victims were primarily young and middle-aged men. In more than 90 percent of cases, family members were able to produce death certificates confirming what they told the interviewers.

Those may look like small numbers on which to base such large claims, but that’s how survey research works. Pollsters in the United States, a much larger country, routinely predict nationwide trends on the basis of fewer interviews.

Does this prove, as the study asserts, that precisely 654,965 Iraqis have died “as a consequence of the war,” and that exactly 601,027 of those deaths were due to violence? No, it doesn’t. The Johns Hopkins team reports being 95 percent certain that the true figure lies between about 400,000 and about 900,000 — a large range of uncertainty that some critics have seized upon as discrediting the whole project.

But the exact number is not the point. Rather, it’s the scope and scale of the carnage.

Late last year President Bush gave an off-the-cuff estimate of 30,000 Iraqi civilian deaths — this after the administration had steadfastly refused to acknowledge even trying to count the Iraqi dead. Now the administration is willing to allow that perhaps 50,000 civilians have died. It is unclear whether any science at all has gone into these estimates or whether they were essentially pulled out of a hat.

But quite a lot of science went into the Johns Hopkins study. Even if you assume that the number of Iraqi civilians killed since the war began is at the very low end of the study’s range, that’s still a quantum leap from earlier estimates. We now have reputable evidence — not proof, I’ll allow, but science-based evidence from respected scholars, published in one of the world’s most prestigious medical journals — that the humanitarian tragedy in Iraq is much, much worse than anyone had suspected.

If the study’s findings are flawed, then its critics should demonstrate how and why. But no one should dismiss these shocking numbers without fully examining them. No one should want to.

Posted: politics, science

And then the Earth Rumbled …0

A Big Rumble
We got hit by earthquake Sunday morning. Rumbled for what seemed like a minute. 6.6 magnitude. Still asleep, woke up to gather family, but couldn’t find them. Two members were hidden in the darkest corner of the house. I dragged them out for comfort, but then got another big shock, 5.8 magnitude. Then power was out for 7 hours. Did some immediate damage control, checked the house. Got lucky. Lots of things tumbled about, but only one picture frame broken, because it had a glass frame. My computer system fell off the desk, wouldn’t know for hours if I lost it. Most of the items are cheap, or made from plastic. Our neighbor came by to check on us. They had family in the house, 8 members, lots of people to help with the significant clean up.

The rest of the day was a little surreal. Power was off. Radio came in from Kauai and Oahu but mostly reported on which gas stations were open, and which restaurants were serving food. There was apparently a big line outside a gas powered malasada stand. Oahu was without power too, 150 miles away. Maui was back on line. My boss called to say that they started a phone tree and I was to call everybody to get them ready for tomorrow. Like people didn’t need to clean up their homes? Couldn’t it wait till afternoon. “If I was you I’d call now.” I reached nobody. Landline phone lines seemed dead, though they were working, cell phones were overloaded, there was no local radio. Is that what’s supposed to happen in an emergency. Oahu radio reports “stay off the roads, stay in the house.” Later we find out that the main roads are closed due to fallen boulders. People from the mainland texted (which came through), asking if we were ok. One former student calls to let us know that the roof of the local Wal-Mart had fallen in.

We considered ourselves lucky. We didn’t know anything about the rest of the island, but our damage was small. Even without power we were back in business in just a few hours. The rest of the patchwork would happen the next day.

And then strange things happened. Apparently there was a run on toilet paper, and ice. Everytime there’s any crisis here, people run for toilet paper and ice. Once power got on, we got TV which showed images. “As we promised, dramatic pictures from the supermarket.” But all it showed were some cans and glass jars on the floor. Easy mop up. One TV station received digital pictures from residents, but it’s mostly just tumbled over stuff, or stupid things like people storing food on open shelves - the items on which obvious fell down. There is a crumbled churched at the north of the island, made from rocks, and lots of collapsed stacked rockwalls. Some houses have cracks, apparently a infinity swimming pool moved 2 inches. I heard that some of the expensive homes at the Mauna Lani resort had cracked drywall, since drywall isn’t made to withstand movement, yet ours is perfectly ok.

One of the people I work with is in Oahu and let’s me know that he won’t be able to get a plane till 4:30 pm the next day. There are various stories from the airlines of whether they’re flying or not. Mainland flights are cancelled, at least for some airlines, unless an airline has already gone beyond the halfway point, at which point they’re allowed to land.

When the computer comes on, I see that we’re Headline News on Yahoo and Google. Apparently there are 669 newspapers already reporting this as front page news. We’re getting email from people on the mainland, worried. One suggests that it probably will take a few days for us to piece our lives back together, and for power and water to come back on. We’re sitting at home, in the hot sun, not knowing where to go.

The governor declared the state a state of emergency, but the reason for that is to release the National Guard and request federal moneys for support. It sounds bad, but …

The next day we get a little aftermath. My workplace is damaged to the point where I’m being asked to stay home. Turns out that several ceiling tiles and fluorescent fixtures fell down. It’s not safe. The hospital across the street got $50,000 of damage. It all came out good. 7 am on a Sunday is the best time for an earthquake to hit. The Kona Hospital had to be evacuated, with patients being driven or helicoptered elsewhere. A condo unit in Waikoloa was declared unsafe, with the residents being turned homeless. The rich guests in the Kohala Coast resorts were evacuated, at least 3,000 of them.

There is a big crack in the lower road towards Hawi. The upper road to Kona has a small fold in it that caused the county bus to go jumping when crossing that spot. There are still big boulders on the road, and at least a dozen places from Kona to Waimea where there must have been significant debris on the road.

Monday the damage was $40 million, right now we’re at $73 million. I’m getting emails telling you how to apply for farm assistance for crop damage due to the earthquake.

It’s a little bizarre.

At work we’re out of business, until we get the big machines back in order, maybe in a day or two. Everybody is tired, apparently from the amount of cleanup, but probably also from the stress involved. This is not a panic kind of stress, just a raised level of sensitivity, an ongoing worry about “is there more” (and there have been several dozen aftershocks). Motivation at work is low, but it’s hard to understand how lethargic you become.

People like, and need, to talk about the quake and what they went through. I don’t get the sense that anything bad happened to anybody. Everybody just feels lucky that it didn’t hit them. Turns out the Walmart roof didn’t come down after all, just a few tiles, and Walmart was back in business by 5 pm. The newspaper showed a picture of the Walmart lot being deserted, but a friend reported how the access road was blocked off, so nobody could get in. The newspapers (and online), kept showing the same picture of people waiting in line for a road chicken at a stand in Kihei (Maui).

So I’m not completely sure I understand how I feel about it. It happened, it’s done. I’ve heard two different situations of people complaining that failed structures were underdesigned, that we should sue the builders, but nobody planned on a big earthquake like this one. Let’s clean up first.

This event was much more emotional than physical, and the media played a good part in that. Something rumbled, we’re shaken up. But luckily nobody got hurt. So let’s continue.

Posted: local

Internet Gambling Prohibition0

(The original: Bush signs anti-Internet gambling law
The reaction: Gamblers, online firms look to skirt new rules)

This news didn’t even make it into our paper. Apparently the administration signed a law making it illegal for US banks to accept payments for internet gambling sites. This law was tacked onto a previous bill, and then approved without any discussion (see http://www.wombatburrow.org/blog/?p=90 for another example of this legal strategy). Why was this passed?

One explanation I can come up with, is that because these businesses are online, in foreign terrotory, we don’t have control over them, or collect any taxes on them. What’s attractive to players, is disturbing to Atlantic City, Nevada and all those Indian Casinos.

But this is just such a bizarre action. Bill Frist proclaims that this is the end of Internet gambling. Are you kidding me? If you want to go after the problem gamblers, then prohibition doesn’t seem the way to go. Does prohibition ever work? And what’s the deal with illegalizing gambling (or gaming as they call it these days?)? Nevada has Reno, Las Vegas, and supermarket slot machines. The East Coast has Atlantic City. There are casinos in New Orleans, and lots of riverboat establishments. Then there are the various Indian tribes in California and the East Coast. The states sanction gambling through lotteries. And in states where gambling is illegal, like here in Hawaii, the number one tourist/holiday desitation has been, for years, “Las Vegas.”

So what’s the point. You think this legislation has any point? That it will be superior to a intelligent mind having an addiction, and knowing a dozen ways around this legislation that depends on the banks patrolling him. That you’re attacking the internet exactly at its strongest point: unlimited accesss on a system that transcends national boundaries. Seems like empty law.

Was that why it didn’t raise any discussion in the paper?

Posted: social/culture, politics

Safety through Armament0

(I couldn’t find this article, think it’s a little older, so retyped it. Found 15. October.)
There was an article in the paper yesterday about some secret service agents training children in Texas that if they have an assailant in their school to not watch for professional assistant, but to hit the guys with everything you’ve got. There are at least two ways to deal with a threat. 1) escalate, 2) defuse. The apparently strong thing is to fight back. Arm yourself, create this environment of fear where nobody knows at what point you might pull a weapon against somebody harboring back thoughts. This is like North Korea having a nuclear missile. “Do they, or don’t they.” The thinking is, since everybody is going to have weapons anyways, let me have them too, but let me have faster, newer, better weapons, to stay ahead of the curve.

The alternative may be for nobody to have these types (or any?) weapons. Maybe it doesn’t have to be illegal. They’ll just go away. The government regulates an industry that will control who obtains the weapons. With much fewer weapons, the escalation would stop, not everything would blow into a fatality. People not carrying guns could walk around knowing that the danger is reduced. Sure you will have a few bad apples, but hopefully there are a lot fewer bad apples.

EDITORIAL - MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL
School safety: ignoring a key ingredient

How do you stop gun toters determined to shoot up a school? That problem defies easy answers. Accordingly, none came forth at a conference President Bush convened in suburban Washington, D.C., this week in response to a spate of deadly school shootings, including the fatal shooting of a principal in rural Wisconsin. Sadly, the conference avoided a promising line of inquiry. A common ingredient of the incidents was the use of guns. The natural question: Can the nation do a better job of keeping firearms out of the hands of people who use the weapons to terrorize schools? That question went unexplored.

The day before tyhe conference,a 13-year-old student brought an AK-47 clone to a middle school in Joplin, Mo., and fired it - without hitting anyone, than goodness. An administrator talked him into leaving the building, and police arrested the boy. The incident was a reminder of Bush’s lax stand on gun control. Two years ago, he let expire a ban on military-style, semiautomatic weapons, such as the AK-47.

Yes, the incidents are complex, and guns are not the only factor. Alienation is a common thread among accused and would-be shooters from the ranks of students. They feel taunted or bullied by the “in” crowd. Fifteen-year-old Eric Hainstock, charged in the shooting death of Weston Schools Principal John Klang in Cazenovia, Wis., seemed to fit that pattern. He said he was upset because a group of students were teasing him.

Clearly, as conferees noted, early detection of ticking time bombs is key. Better yet, can schools take steps to ease tensions among cliques so that bombs won’t start ticking? One possible answer is uniforms. Schools that have adopted them report reduction in such tensions - a fact worth pondering. And schools must examine whether their anti-bullying policies need to be upgraded. Two recent shooting incidents - in Bailey, Colo., and Lancaster, Pa. - departed from the norm in that they involved men who invaed schools with the apparent intent of molesting female students. One recommendation - that all schools draw up an emergency plan in the event violence breaks out and that they practice the plan - is worth adopting.

But the one-day conference was too reticent about guns. A Wisconsin lawmaker has contributed to that topic, but not in a helpful way. State Rep. Frank Lasee, a Green Bay REpublican, wants to arm teachers and principals on the theory that they could pull out their trusty weapons to stop armed assailants.

While that outcome is possible, guns in schools are likely to do more than harm than good. For one, students could steal the weapons. For another, they might be too handy when heated disputes erupt. Also, in the event of an assault, a teacher could be killed while reaching for a gun.

Remember, Columnbine High School had an armed guard on the premises, and he was not able to stop the massacre. Another object lesson comes from Tyler, Texas, where last year a bystander, licensed to carry a concealed weapon, pulled out his handgun to stop a shooting spree outside the courthouse. The assailant, armed with an AK-47, shot the bystander to death.

The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence has faulted Bush or excluding the topic of guns from the conference. White House spokeswoman Emily Lawrimore fired back in an e-mail message to the Los Angeles Times: “President Bush believes we should target criminals who break our laws - not law-abiding citizens who follow the law.”

Trouble is, the government already deals about as effectively as it can with shooters. Unfortunately, this is only after they breeak the law and shoot up a school. Law enforcement offices arrest them if they haven’t already killed themselves. That’s not where the weakness in the system is. The weakness is in heading off such shootings. Relaxing gun laws does not shore up that weakness.

Posted: politics

Chuck Harrison, Invisible Industrial Design Giant0

(Original here).

Interesting story about an industrial designer who’s not about self promotion. He’s proud of the garbage can, the view master, and the 10 sewing machines developed every year.

Never heard of him - Charles Harrison

Chuck Harrison, Adding Dimension to Design
By Linda Hales
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; C01

Chuck Harrison may be the Jackie Robinson of design.

His career followed an uncharted path from rural Louisiana to chief of design — and the first African American executive — at Chicago-based Sears, Roebuck and Co. Beyond breaking through the color barrier of the postwar workplace, Harrison, 75, built a legacy of innovation and thoughtfulness into 750 household products, most created in anonymity for a company that was once the nation’s undisputed retail giant.

Last night, such feats earned Harrison an award for lifetime achievement from FocusOnDesign, a Washington-based group that promotes diversity in design. It was his second honor in three weeks. The Industrial Designers Society of America gave Harrison an honorary award for “personal recognition” at its annual convention in Austin.

Though Harrison’s list of credits is long, his favorite is a garbage can, the first to be made in plastic, that softened the sounds of trash day.

“No more clang-clang” of metal before breakfast, he said in an interview yesterday. The round container evolved shortly into the familiar square green hulk with two wheels and raccoon-proof lid.

In an age of iPods and feature-laden cellphones, trash cans may rank low on the fashion scale. But Harrison’s goal has always been changing fundamentals — improving the way people live.

“It’s not necessary to have your name on the marquee to make a contribution,” he says.

Harrison helped perfect the portable hair dryer, riding lawn mower and see-through measuring cup. He worked on a universe of Craftsman power tools, as well as percolators, fondue pots, toasters and stoves. He dreamed up eight to 12 sewing machines every year for 12 years.

No design is more iconic than the View-Master, the 3-D viewer that Harrison helped update in the 1950s. (Only recently, with the sale of the patent to Fisher-Price, was Harrison’s form altered.)

Harrison tells his story in a memoir, “A Life’s Design: The Life and Work of Industrial Designer Charles Harrison.” He was born in Shreveport, La., in 1931. One of his first attempts at design as a child involved a “skate box,” the forerunner of the skateboard, which he made from an old piece of two-by-four and some skate wheels.

His father, Charles Alfred Harrison Sr., taught industrial arts first at Southern University in Shreveport, then at Texas A&M, and finally at a high school in Phoenix. The younger Harrison showed a special talent for art at City College of San Francisco. After wangling a scholarship to the Art Institute of Chicago, he earned a degree in industrial design.

He says his talent was acknowledged, but getting a design job in the ’50s was tough because of racial prejudice. A mentor from the Art Institute, the Viennese-born designer Henry Glass, took him on and provided the experience that would allow Harrison to succeed.

“It was very tough,” Harrison says. “I uncovered every rock in Chicago. People wanted to help me. I stumbled around.”

Sears opened the door in 1961, allowing Harrison to become “one of a small number of black executives in all of corporate America,” as Victor Margolin, professor of design history at the University of Illinois at Chicago, writes in the foreword to Harrison’s book.

Harrison says he rose in the workaday world “despite a long list of despites.” In humble mass-market housewares and consumer products, he found the opportunity to express his artistic spirit while easing the stresses of everyday living for millions of strangers.

“This is a fundamental part of who I am,” he says.

Harrison traveled the world as a designer. The objects he developed — cutting-edge steam irons, electric frying pans, mixers, juicers, televisions — defined the burgeoning consumer class.

“I tried to make things appear as if they just belong. . . . They didn’t need to scream,” he says in the book. “My best efforts resulted in products that did their job as expected — you look at it, right away guess what it is supposed to do, and that’s exactly what it does.”

By 1993, Sears had downsized. The entire design department was eliminated and Harrison retired. He notes today that Sears has begun to reconstitute its design group to compete with Target and Wal-Mart.

Despite the omnipresence of design in the modern world — from Hollywood sets to supermarket toothbrushes — there are few designers of color, whose professional development FocusOnDesign, based at the Washington Design Center, seeks to foster.

Harrison was not the first African American designer; Margolin counts two other major talents who preceded him: McKinley Thompson, an auto designer in the 1950s at General Motors, and Georg Olden, who directed on-air graphics for CBS in the 1940s.

For Harrison, design was its own reward: “I came into my own as an artist and human being.”

“I think I’m pretty good,” he adds.

Posted: social/culture, design

Curing the Ugly American0

This article (original here) just made the paper today. Looks like it is more than two weeks old. Pretty funny of the minister cursing at the Vatican

Just wait until Judgment Day. You’ll pay for this.

And of course we’re right. They’re wrong. The lines from the manual (and the last two paragraphs) didn’t make it into our local paper. The first item on there is already an invitation for trouble.

Guide tells us how to behave abroad
New booklet hopes to counter image of ‘ugly American’
By Joe Burris
Sun Reporter
October 1, 2006

A New Zealand man asked that if we Americans can’t learn to shut up and listen more often, “could you at least lower your volume?”

Reports out of the United Kingdom say many of its citizens believe our policies and cultures are making the world a more dangerous place to live. Some Australians think we’re dumb, obese and arrogant; they use the phrase,”Oh, that’s so American” as a putdown.

These are a sampling of sentiments that Keith Reinhard gathered from across the world while probing the depth of anti-American sentiment.

The former international marketing executive is convinced that such perceptions are widespread and growing.

He worries that such attitudes could usher in behavior that would give Americans who travel abroad another cause for concern — along with the threat of being targets for terrorism.

Problem is, he says, American travelers are often at fault for such sweeping stereotypes; too many have scarce knowledge of and little regard for the cultures and norms they venture into. All too often, they talk down to their hosts.

Reinhard believes he has a way to dispel such perceptions: He founded the Business for Diplomatic Action, a group of educators, executives and citizens working to combat the spread of anti-American sentiment.

Though its primary focus has been business travelers, the BDA recently extended its efforts to all Americans going abroad with its World Citizens Guide, booklets and pamphlets that offer a crash course in nations’ histories, religions, views, traditions, peoples and languages.

Reinhard says some folks ask why Americans should be concerned over such perceptions. He considers the recent alleged terrorist plot to blow up American jetliners that was thwarted in the United Kingdom.

Then he asks why shouldn’t we? “The rise in anti-Americanism is a threat to our national security,” he says. “The more people dislike us, the more easily they can be recruited by our enemies. In this global world, we need all the friends we can get.”

Global facts

The World Citizens Guide is colorfully illustrated and includes images of nations’ flags, loads of facts about each country and common sense tips that probably would benefit any traveler.

The 60-page, passport-sized booklet was created for students who study abroad. Its success ushered in the pamphlet, an abridged version, for business travelers.

The booklet, which also includes an interactive mini-CD, includes the 50 most useful words in Arabic, French, German, Italian and Spanish.

It suggests that Americans should learn the norms of the countries where they travel and imitate those norms. Doing so, it says, may prevent someone from unintentionally sending the wrong message.

For example, it says: “In most European countries, the correct way to wave hello and goodbye is palm out, hand and arm stationary, fingers wagging up and down. Common American waving hand moving side to side means no — except in Greece, where it is an insult.”

The pamphlet begins with an FYI: “In other countries, you are more than just an American. You are America.” Then it offers 16 suggestions everyone should consider to “make a big difference in America’s standing in the world.”

“The guide really talks about how we might have a more enriching experience abroad if we are able to open ourselves up and embrace other cultures more,” says Patricia Alvey, a Southern Methodist University professor who oversaw the creation of the guides.

The guides have been distributed to 300 colleges and universities as well as more than 20,000 businesspeople in 800 companies.

The Marines use them, and the federal government is considering distributing the guide with every American passport.

“The latest I heard … was that the State Department is still considering this,” Reinhard says. “They certainly want to include some of our content in some way, whether it would be handing out these guides or modifications of them.”

Alvey says the guides are not intended to relay all-encompassing information about a particular country.

“We’re saying, ‘If we could get your attention: Here are some ways we might be more different than you think,’ and ‘Here is another way of looking at travel.’”

Image facelift

Reinhard says such efforts could not come at a better time. He says U.S. foreign policy and stricter border controls for foreigners entering our country play a great role in our image problem. But it’s also because of American travelers who live up to the “ugly American” stereotype.

“We asked our researchers to go out and ask people what they do like about Americans and what they don’t like,” he says, “and the positives are what you would expect — youthful enthusiasm, a can-do spirit.

“But the negatives were very consistent across all regions. That we were exploiters. That we promote values that were not in concert with social mores of other countries. That we were arrogant, ignorant, totally self-absorbed, unwilling to listen and uninterested in other cultures.”

Reinhard says that unless Americans address those perceptions soon, “this is going to go into the realm of prejudice. And prejudice means that no matter what you do, there is still [prejudgment] against you.”

Reinhard travels throughout the country, spreading the word about the World Citizens Guides. He’s giving reasons why they seem necessary, telling stories he’s received from around the world about American tourists behaving badly.

During a July 12 speech at the National Summit on Citizen Diplomacy in Washington, Reinhard spoke of an incident involving two American tourists in shorts who were not allowed in Vatican City because of the Vatican’s strict dress codes.

“Out of frustration, one of the men revealed that he was a minister,” Reinhard said, “and that he had been looking forward to the trip for a long time. ‘I don’t see what the big deal is,’ he said. ‘If God can accept me wearing shorts, why can’t you? I’m sure God is wearing shorts right now. Just wait until Judgment Day. You’ll pay for this.’”

“Maybe so,” Reinhard said, “but they didn’t get into the Vatican.” He also speaks of going overseas and seeing shifts in attitudes toward America, namely in marketing.

Reinhard remembers traveling to South Africa as a marketing executive eight years ago and successfully billing Neutrogena as “America’s No. 1 face cream.”

When he visited South Africa earlier this year, he stumbled upon a billboard message advertising DaimlerChrysler Smart cars:

“German engineering. Swiss innovation. American nothing.”

DaimlerChrysler’s South African division said the ad was not meant to sound anti-American and that it merely spoke of South African’s preference for smaller, more fuel-efficient European cars over huge American gas-guzzlers.

The advertisement was removed after officials from DaimlerChrysler’s U.S. division complained. And Reinhard says regardless of its intentions, such an ad would have been virtually unheard of a few years ago.

“American origin used to be a selling point,” he says.

Reinhard says he’s had success in convincing Americans across the country that anti-American sentiment abroad is a concern. But not everyone’s willing to listen.

“I was on a radio show in Columbus [Ohio], and most of the callers were supportive. But one guy said, ‘Mr. Reinhard is wrong; what this country needs is more John Waynes and fewer Liberaces. We don’t need those other countries.’”

Not so, Reinhard says.

“As a parent and grandparent,” he says, “I wouldn’t want my children growing up in a world where they can’t travel freely about the world without being harassed.”
——————————————————————————–
When you go abroad

A few tips from the World Citizens Guide:

* Show your pride, but respect theirs.
* Think as big as you like, but talk and act smaller.
* Leave the slang at home.
* Listen at least as much as you talk.
* Speak lower and slower.
* You’ll never go wrong with a smile.

For more information, go to worldcitizensguide.org.

Posted: social/culture

Big Sports, Local Business0

(Had to retype this one.)

This is a fun little local one (like the Japanese guy turning the ritzy Kahala neighborhood into his own). Supposedly a big event. One mainland company putting on an event, racking up bills, quitting. Another company taking over the day before the event, not assuming liabilities. New company certain that this event will happen. One question: is the new company “Cornerstone Bancard” or “Pineapple Productions.” The latter would sound like another candidate for spontaneous combustion. Another question: who collected all the profits from that event?
And then is this such a big deal? 7,000 people watched it. The article lists $200,000 in unpaid bills. How much money does this make? They have to fly over the players, and pay them, and house them. They have to staff the event. Who gets the money from the food sales at the Stadium? Hawaii has to hope that this attracts tourists and thus money, but how many of the 7,000 were tourists that left their money here? How many watched the game on TV and decided to come here as a result?

But I really like how it shows that this college “sport” is just a business. Big things need to happen in the background, and something things go “blip.” My suspicion is that none of the people in the article care about the game, but that may not be a bad thing. Let’s see what happens January 14.

Actually, I don’t think we’ll hear from this one again. Too much money involved to air this out in the public. Much better to get embarrassed in private.

Aloha Stadium won’t OK Hula Bowl until past bills settled
The Associated Press

HONOLULU - Aloha Stadium won’t guarantee a date for the upcoming Hula Bowl until the college all-star game’s owner settles unpaid bills for the last event.

The owner, Nick Logan of Atlanta-based Cornerstone Bancard, says the 2007 event will be staged Jan. 14.

But Aloha Stadium wants his company to pay some $50,000 to $60,000 dollars inoutstanding bills from last season’s game.

Logan says the Hula Bowl’s previous owners are liable, not his company, Pineapple productions.

“I’ve been trying to tell them they’re asking the wrong person,” Logan said. “We weren’t the owners until the day before the game.”

Stadium acting deputy manager Scott Chan said he wants to see the 61st Hula Bowl success, but not before payment is received.

“We have it penciled in tentatively,” Chan said, “but we’re not going to move forward until we get this resolved.”

The Hula Bowl also allegedly oes other Oahu companies money.

Propotions and advertising company Hawaii Pacific Entertainment filed a Circuit Court suit in June asking for $103,560 in media fees, commissions and other expenses.

Overtime Sports Pacific, the previous ownership group, also is listed as a defendant in that suit.

Overtime pricipals Kenny Hansmire and Mark Salmans could not be reached for comment.

The Honolulu Star-Bulletin is owned $10,000 for advertising, vice president of marketing David Kennedy said.

“All I know is they’re pointing fingers at each other, and we haven’t been paid,” Kennedy said.

Another $20,000 is owed Roberts hawaii for ground transportation.

Chan said he spoke with Logan about the debt Thursday for the first time.

He said an undetermined deposit will be required in addition to settling the last bill.

“This is an event that’s been in hawaii a long time. We’re going to do our best to work with this client to resolved the issue and have the game back,” Chan said. “We’re hoping this is a step forward.”

Chan said he did not impose a deadline for payment.

“I think we have enough time. As long as they fulfill the outstanding obligation, it will be fine,” he said.

Financial and attendance problems are familiar to the Hula Bowl, which has struggled in a saturated market of college football all-star games dominated by the NFL-sponsored Senior Bowl.

A gathering of 7,065 saw the East beat the West in January. It was the first Aloha Stadium Hula Bowl after the game was played on Maui for eight years.

Posted: local

Compost Worms Working at Work0

(Original here).

Not sure that it’s a good idea to combine home and work life in such a fashion, but maybe steps like these are needed to raise conscience in everybody.

Those crazy Californians.

California Encourages Bringing Worms to Work
By NOAKI SCHWARTZ,
Associated Press Writer
Wed Oct 11, 8:53 PM ET

Next to a copy machine on the 10th floor of the city’s public works building sits a plastic bin filled with worms wriggling in rotting lettuce. Public servants walk by without even glancing at the box or the note above it: “Quiet please. Worms at work.”

Always on the cutting edge of all things environmental, California is encouraging public and private-sector employees to bring worms to work so that the creatures can chew up apple cores, sandwich scraps and other lunch leftovers and produce compost.

The employees are then invited to take the stuff home and use the all-natural fertilizer in their gardens and on their houseplants.

The state’s Integrated Waste Management Board is so serious about this that it has posted on its Web site a list of top 10 ways to recycle on the job, and No. 2 is: “Keep worms in your office.”

Supporters of the idea say that once you get over the ick factor, it’s not so bad. Open up a bin and it looks like a box of odorless, wet coffee grounds.

“Worms are the most forgiving pets you’ll ever own,” said Carol Parker, the “worm lady” who cares for the worms at the public works office. “You can go away for two weeks and ignore them and they’re fine.”

Tips for keeping happy worms are available on the state’s Web site. Among other things, it suggests buying your worms from a worm supplier, to make sure you get the right kind. (”Unless you are pretty well brushed up on oligochaetology, do not try to dig up worms from your backyard.”)

The site provides a long list of suppliers across the state to choose from, including As the Worm Turns, Live Nude Worms, and the Happy D. Ranch Worm Farm, which sells a three-tray “worm factory,” which for $117 includes a bed of shredded coconut fiber and two pounds of worms.

To start a homemade bin, experts recommend putting down a little dirt and shredded damp cardboard or newspaper. Be sure to poke holes in the bin ” air flow is necessary to promote decomposition and keep odors down ” and make absolutely certain you’ve bought the right kind of worms. Apparently if they are not red worms, they may try to escape en masse.

The waste management board “part of the California Environmental Protection Agency ” began promoting composting at least a decade ago, though the Top 10 suggestions are more recent. Andrew Hurst, who oversees the program at Cal EPA, acknowledged that only “very, very small numbers of businesses have worms.”

“It’s a weird thing to do,” he admits. “It’s not normal behavior to bring a bucket of worms to your office and put food scraps in there.”

At the Cal EPA complex in Sacramento, hundreds of thousands of worms process some five tons of food scraps per year. The 60-some bins are in offices, halls, even the daycare center. There is a waiting list for bins among employees, some of whom have been known to compete over whose office has the more productive worms.

Over time, the caretakers have learned a thing or two about the worms’ preferences.

“Worms don’t like ranch dressing,” Hurst said.

They also seem to harbor a special dislike for bologna sandwiches, though any kind of dairy or meat product is problematic because of the smell, he added. Like other slender creatures, worms are also finicky about fatty foods and carbs, and eat bread only in moderation. Coffee grounds, on the other hand, and rotting fruit go over very well.

“They don’t have teeth, so things have to rot,” Hurst explained. “Worms need to be able to slurp it.”

At least one Los Angeles County employee acknowledged that her popularity did not exactly skyrocket when she brought her new hobby to work.

“People found it objectionable that I had worms behind my desk,” said Janet Coke, with the county sanitation agency. “They would just kind of tease me about my worm pile.”

On the Net:
http://www.zerowaste.ca.gov/Top10Office.htm

Posted: social/culture, environment